Research Papers and Books
A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic-Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022
(with Hassan Sayed, NBER Working Paper 30267, July 2022)
Data and additional information
How to Boost the Payoff from Innovation While Shrinking its Destructive Side Effects
(Business History Review, Vol. 95 (Winter 2021), pp. 823-40)
Productivity and Growth Over the Years at BPEA
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2021), pp. 213-29)
Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of Productivity Growth in the U.S. and Europe
(with Hassan Sayed, in International Productivity Monitor, Spring 2020, no. 38, pp. 50-80 | Also available as NBER Working Paper 27425)
The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown
(with Hassan Sayed, in International Productivity Monitor, Fall 2019, no. 37, pp. 3-38 | Also available as NBER Working Paper 25703)
When Will the Longest Expansion End?
(in Business Economics | 2019, Vol. 54 No. 1, pp.1-10)
Declining American economic growth despite ongoing innovation
(in Explorations in Economic History | 2018, Vol. 69, pp.1-12 | Also available as NBER Working Paper 24554)
Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century’s Perspective
(in Review of Keynesian Economics | Winter 2018, Vol. 6 No. 4, pp. 425-436 | Also available as NBER Working Paper 24891)
Afterword to paperback edition of The Rise and Fall of American Growth
(Princeton University Press | April 2017)
The Rise and Fall of Economic Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War
(Princeton University Press | January 12, 2016)
Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings | 2016, no. 5, pp. 72-76)
Productivity, Prices, and Measurement
(Presented at Boskinfest Conference, Stanford, October 2015)
Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: U.S. Productivity Growth in the Long Run
(Digiworld Economic Journal | October 2015)
The Future of Economic Growth: Slowing to a Crawl
(In Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro, The Fabulous Future? America and the World in 2040, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, 2015, pp. 5-21)
Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View
(American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings | February 2015)
A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP
(NBER Working Paper 20423 | August 2014)
The Demise of U. S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
(NBER Working Paper 19895 | February 2014)
The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Fiscal Multipliers, Capacity Constraints, and Policy Contributions
(with Robert Krenn | This new version of 14 February 2014 replaces the previous version issued as NBER working paper 16380 in September 2010.)
The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery
(NBER Working Paper 19390 | August 2013)
US Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival
(International Productivity Monitor Number 25 | Spring 2013)
Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
(NBER Working Paper 18315 | August 2012)
Where Is Macro Going?
(in Robert M. Solow and Jean-Philippe Touffut, What’s Right With Macroeconomics?, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2012, pp. 195-229)
The Evolution of Okun’s Law and of Cyclical Productivity Fluctuations in the United States and in the EU-15
(For Presentation at EES/IAB Workshop,Labor Market Institutions and the Macroeconomy Nuremberg | June 17-18, 2011)
Okun’s Law and Productivity Innovations
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 11-15.)
The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation
(Economica, vol. 78 (January, 2011), pp. 10-50)
Controversies about Work, Leisure, and Welfare in Europe and the United States
(In E. S. Phelps and H.-W. Sinn, Perspectives on the Performance of the Continental Economies, MIT Press, pp. 343-86)
Revisiting U. S. Productivity Growth Over the Past Century with a View of the Future
(NBER Working Paper 15834 | March 2010)
Apparel Prices 1914-1993 and the Hulten/Bruegel Paradox
(In W. Erwin Diewert, John Greenlees, and Charles Hulten, eds., Price Index Concepts and Measurement,Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2009, pp. 85-128)
Is Modern Macro or 1978-era Macro More Relevant to the Understanding of the Current Economic Crisis?
(Paper presented at the International Colloquium on the History of Economic Thought | Sao Paulo, Brazil | August 3, 2009)
Has the Rise in American Inequality Been Exaggerated?
(NBER Working Paper 15351 | September 2009)
This is a revised and extended version of a paper originally presented at the ASSA Meetings, San Francisco CA, January 3, 2009, and published in Challenge, May/June 2009
The Role of Labor Market Changes In the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth
(with Ian Dew-Becker | Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol. 3 – No. 2, Spring 2012 – Article 1 and CEPR Discussion Paper 6722 | February 2008)
Controversies about the Rise of American Inequality: A Survey
(with Ian Dew-Becker | NBER Working Paper 13982 and CEPR Discussion Paper 6817 | May 2008)
Selected Issues in Income Inequality
(with Ian Dew-Becker | Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, no. 2, pp. 169-92)
Comparing Welfare in Europe and the United States
(in Barry Eichengreen et al. The European Economy in an American Mirror, Routledge, 2007, pp. 169-92)
The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later
(International Productivity Monitor, Spring 2006, pp. 7-22 | NBER Working Paper 12311 | June 2006 )
Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income
(with Ian Dew-Becker | Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 2005, no. 2. pp 67-127 | CEPR Discussion Paper 5419, December 2005 | NBER Working Paper 11842, December 2005)
What Caused the Decline in U. S. Business Cycle Volatility?
(Presented at Conference on The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia, July 11-12, 2005. Revised, August 2, 2005
In Christopher Kent and David Norman, eds., The Changing Nature of Business Cycle Volatility. Sydney: Economics Group, Reserve Bank of Australia, pp. 61-104. | CEPR Discussion Paper 5413, December 2005 | NBER Working Paper 11777, November 2005)
The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection
(Presented to Economic History Conference, Understanding the 1990s: The Long-Term Perspective, Duke University, March 26-27, 2004. Revised, January 23, 2005
In Paul Rhode and Gianni Toniolo, eds., Understanding the 1990s (Cambridge UK and New York, Cambridge Univeristy Press, 2006), pp. 161-92. | CEPR Discussion Paper 5412, December 2005 | NBER Working Paper 11778, November 2005)
A Century of Downward Bias in the Most Important Component of the CPI: The Case of Rental Shelter, 1914-2003
(Presented at CRIW Conference in Memory of Zvi Griliches, Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services, September 19-20, 2003. Revised, July 2004.
In E. Berndt and C. Hulten, eds., Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER), 2007, pp. 153-96 | NBER Working Paper 11776, November 2005.)
Five Puzzles in the Behavior of Productivity, Investment, and Innovation
(Version of March 31, 2004 | In Augusto Lopez-Claros and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, eds., The Global Competitiveness Report 2003-04. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004, pp. 117-35 | CEPR Discussion Paper 4414, June 2004, | NBER Working Paper 10662, August 2004)
Why was Europe Left at the Station When America’s Productivity Locomotive Departed?
(In Mary Gregory, Wiemer Salverda, and Ronald Schettkat, eds., Services and Employment: Explaining the U.S.-European Gap. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2007, pp. 176-97 | CEPR Discussion Paper 4416, June 2004 | NBER Working Paper 10661, August 2004. Version of March 31, 2004)
Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Europe Chasing the American Frontier
(Presented at AEA meetings, Atlanta, January 2002 and the Northwestern Economic History workshop, October, 2002. Revised version CEPR Discussion Paper 4415, June 2004 | NBER Working Paper 10662, August 2004. Version of March 30, 2004)
Are Procylical Productivity Fluctuations a Figment of Measurement Error?
(in Robert J. Gordon, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004, pp. 239-72)
Forward into the Past: Productivity Retrogression in the Electric Generating Industry
(in Robert J. Gordon, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004, pp. 172-217)
The Disappearance of Productivity Change
(in Robert J. Gordon, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004, pp. 90-133)
Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity vol. 34 (2003, no. 2), pp. 207-298)
Hi-tech Innovation and Productivity Growth: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?
(NBER Working Paper 9437 | January 2003)
Inflation and Unemployment in the New Economy: Is the Trade-off Dead or Alive?
(Prepared for the Workshop on The Phillips Curve: New Theory and Evidence Trade Union Institute For Economic Research | Stockholm, Sweden | May 25-26, 2002)
Technological Innovation and Economic Performance Chapter 3: The United States
(In Richard Nelson, Benn Steil, and David Victor, eds., Technological Innovation and Economic Performance, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002, pp. 49-73 | in Jean-Philippe Touffut et al., Institutions et Croissance: Albin Michel, 2002, pp. 279-326)
Recent Productivity Puzzles in the Context of Zvi Griliches’ Research
(Paper presented to meetings of the American Economic Association | January 5, 2002)
Local Indexes of Apartment Rent and House Sale Prices
(January 2001 | report on preliminary research progress)
Neither Too Hot nor Too Cold: The U. S. Economy in the 1990s
(in OECD, Policies Toward Full Employment, Paris, 2000, pp. 61-66)
Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?
(Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.4, no.14 (Fall 2000), pp. 49-74. | CEPR Discussion Paper 2607, November 2000 | NBER Working Paper 7833, August 2000)
Interpreting the ‘One Big Wave’ in U. S. Long-term Productivity Growth
(Published in Bart van Ark, Simon Duipers, and Gerard Kuper, eds., Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth, Kluwer Publishers, 2000, pp.19-65. | CEPR Discussion Paper 2608, November 2000 | NBER Working Paper 7752, June 2000)
U. S. Economic Growth Since 1870: One Big Wave?
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings vol. 89 (May 1999), pp. 123-8)
The Boskin Commission Report and its Aftermath
(Paper presented at Conference on the Measurement of Inflation Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, Wales, September 1, 1999 | In Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 17, no. 3 (December 1999), pp. 41-68 | NBER Working Paper 7759, June 2000)
Has the ‘New Economy’ Rendered the Productivity Slowdown Obsolete?
(Version of June 14, 1999)
Hub and Network Pricing in the Northwest Airlines Domestic System
(With Darryl Jenkins | George Washington University working paper | September 1999)
Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU
(In Brookings Papers on Economic Activity ,no.2 (1998), pp. 297-346 | NBER Working Paper Reprint 7759, August 1999
The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?
(In Currency Crises edited by Paul Krugman, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2000, pp. 241-284 | CEPR Discussion Paper No.2073, February 1999 | NBER working paper 6964, February 1999)
Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living
(with Michael J. Boskin, Ellen R. Dulberger, Zvi Griliches, and Dale W. Jorgenson in Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 12, no. 1 (Winter 1998), pp. 3-26)
Quality Change and New Products
(with Zvi Griliches in American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 87 (May 1997), pp. 84-88)
The CPI Commission: Findings and Recommendations
(with Michael J. Boskin, Ellen R. Dulberger, Zvi Griliches, and Dale W. Jorgenson in American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 87 (May 1997), pp. 78-83)
The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy
(Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.11 (Fall 1997), pp. 11-32)
Introduction: The Economics of New Goods
(with Timothy Bresnahan in The Economics of New Goods, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1997, pp. 1-26)
Macroeconomic Policy in the Presence of Structural Maladjustment
(Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Reform, OECD, 1996, pp. 173-204)
Is There a Tradeoff between Unemployment and Productivity Growth?
(In Unemployment Policy: Government Options for the Labour Market edited by D. Snower and G. de la Dehesa, Cambridge University Press, 1997, pp.433-63)
Problems in the Measurement and Performance of Service-Sector Productivity in the United States
(in Productivity and Growth edited by P. Andersen, J. Dwyer, and D. Gruen, eds, Reserve Bank of Australia, 1995, pp. 139-166)
The Jobless Recovery: Does It Signal a New Era of Productivity-Led Growth?
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 24 (1993, no. 1), pp. 271-316.)
Wage and Price Dynamics in Germany and America: Differences and Common Themes
(With Wolfgang Franz, European Economic Review, vol. 37 (May 1993), pp. 719-54.)
Productivity in the Transportation Sector
(in Z. Griliches, ed., Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, University of Chicago Press for NBER, pp. 371-422.)
What Is New-Keynesian Economics?
(Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 28 (September, 1990), pp. 1115-71. | Also NBER reprint no. 1513.)
Hysteresis in History: Was There Ever a Phillips Curve?
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 79 (May, 1989), pp. 220-5. | Also NBER reprint no. 1424.)
Fresh Water, Salt Water, and Other Macroeconomic Elixirs
(Economic Record, vol. 65 (June 1989), pp. 177-84. | Also in Philip Maxwell, ed., Macroeconomics: Contemporary Australian Readings ,Sydney: Harper and Row, 1990.)
U.S. Inflation, Labor’s Share, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
(in Heinz König, ed., Economics of Wage Determination (Berlin and New York: Springer Verlag, 1990), pp. 1-34. | Also NBER reprint no. 1441.)
The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 19 (1988, no. 2), pp. 347-420, (with Martin N. Baily). | Also NBER reprint no. 1199.)
Back to the Future: European Unemployment Today Viewed from America in 1939
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 19 (1988, no. 1), pp. 271-304. | Also NBER reprint no. 1098.)
The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Results
(with Nathan S. Balke. Journal of Political Economy, vol.97 (February 1989), pp. 38-92. | Also NBER reprint no. 1200.)
Wage Gaps vs. Output Gaps: Is There A Common Story for All of Europe?
(in Herbert Giersch, ed., Macro and Micro Policies for More Growth and Employment Keil Symposium (Tubingen: J.C.B. Mohr [Paul Siebeck] 1988), pp. 97-151. | Also NBER reprint no. 1096.)
The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 78 (May, 1988), pp. 276-83. | Also NBER reprint no. 1478.)
U.S. Fiscal Deficits and the World Imbalance of Payments
(Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, vol.27 (Special Issue, October, 1986), pp. 7-41.)
The Postwar Evolution of Computer Prices
(in Dale W. Jorgenson and Ralph Landau, eds. Technology and Capital Formation (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1989), pp. 77-125.)
Productivity, Wages, and Prices Inside and Outside of Manufacturing in the U.S., Japan, and Europe
(European Economic Review, vol. 31, no. 3 (April 1987), pp. 685-733. | Also NBER reprint no. 970. | Reprinted in G. de Ménil and R. J. Gordon, eds., International Volatility and Economic Growth (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1991), pp. 153-201. )
Understanding Inflation in the 1980s
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 16 (1985, no. 1),pp. 263-99. | Also NBER reprint no. 651.)
Unemployment and the Growth of Potential Output in the 1980s
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 15 (1984, no. 2), pp. 537-64. NBER reprint no. 576.)
Fixed Investment in the American Business Cycle, 1919-83
(with John M. Veitch, in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1986), pp.267-335.)
The Short-run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration
(Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.16 (November 1984), pp. 403-34. | Also NBER reprint no. 570.)
The 1981-82 Velocity Decline: A Structural Shift in Income or Money Demand?
(Conference on Monetary Targeting and Velocity: Conference Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1984, pp. 67-99. | German translation in J. Langhau and C. Kohler, eds., Wirtschaftspolitik und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung (Bonn: Verlag Neue, 1985), pp. 165-86.)
Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy Revisited
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,vol. 74 (May 1984), pp. 38-43. | Also NBER reprint no. 676.)
The Conduct of Monetary Policy
(in A. Ando, H. Eguchi, R. Farmer, and Y. Suzuki, eds., Monetary Policy in Our Times (M.I.T. Press, 1985), pp. 45-81. | A lso NBER reprint no. 638.)
Using Monetary Control to Dampen the Business Cycle: A New Set of First Principles
(in M. and S. Wachter, eds., Removing Obstacles to Economic Growth (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1984), pp. 302-36.)
Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980
(Journal of Political Economy, vol. 90 (December 1982), pp. 1087-1117. | Also NBER reprint no. 352.)
The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 13 (1982, no. 1), pp. 205-42 (with Stephen R. King). NBER reprint no. 342.)
A Century of Evidence on Wage and Price Stickiness in the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan
(in J. Tobin, ed., Macroeconomics, Prices, and Quantities (Brookings, 1983), pp. 85-121. | Also NBER reprint no. 372.)
Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes
(in R.E.Hall, ed., Inflation: Causes and Effects (University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1982), pp. 15-40. | Also NBER reprint no. 413.)
Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
(in M.N. Baily, ed., Workers, Jobs, and Inflation (Brookings, 1982), pp. 88-152. | Also NBER reprint no. 343.)
The Consumer Price Index: Measuring Inflation and Causing It
(The Public Interest, no. 63, Spring 1981, pp. 112-34. NBER reprint no. 191. | Reprinted as ‘The Inflation Indexing Dilemma,’ Economic Impact, 1981, no. 4, pp. 51-8.)
Output Fluctuations and Gradual Price Adjustment
(Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 19 (June 1981), pp. 492-530. | Also NBER reprint no. 190. | Spanish translation in Informacion Comercial Espanola, no. 581 (January 1982), pp. 136-57.)
Government Intervention in the Inflation Process: The Econometrics of Self-Inflicted Wounds
(With John Frye, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 71 (May 1981), pp. 288-94. | Also NBER reprint no. 180.)
A Consistent Characterization of a Near-Century of Price Behavior
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 70 (May 1980), pp. 243-9.)
Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas
(in M. Feldstein, ed., The American Economy in Transition (University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1980), pp. 101-62. | Also NBER reprint no.151.)
The End-of-Expansion Phenomenon in Short-Run Productivity Behavior
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 10 (1979, no. 2), pp. 447-61. | Also NBER reprint no. 57.)
Energy Efficiency, User Cost Changes, and the Measurement of Durable Goods Prices
(in M.Foss, ed., The U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: Selected Topics, Conference on Income and Wealth, Studies in Income and Wealth Series (University of Chicago Press and NBER, 1983), pp. 205-53.)
Monetarist Interpretations of the Great Depression: Evaluation and Critique
(in Karl Brunner, ed., The Great Depression Revisited (Boston: Martinus Nijhoff, 1981), pp. 49-107.)
What Can Stabilization Policy Achieve?
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 68 (May 1978), pp. 335-41.)
World Inflation and the Sources of Monetary Accommodation: A Study of Eight Countries
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 8 (1977, no. 2), pp. 409-68. | A longer version titled ‘International Monetarism, Wage Push and Monetary Accommodation,’ is in A. Courakis, ed., Inflation, Depression, and Economic Policy in the West (London: Mansell and Alexandrine Press, 1979), pp. 1-63.)
Can the Inflation of the 1970s Be Explained?
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 8 (1977, no. 1), pp. 253-77.)
The Theory of Domestic Inflation
(American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 67 (February 1977), pp. 128-34.)
Structural Unemployment and the Productivity of Women
(in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer, eds., Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, a supplementary series to the Journal of Monetary Economic, vol. 5 (North-Holland, January 1977), pp. 181-229.)
Recent Developments in the Theory of Inflation and Unemployment
(Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 2 (April 1976), pp. 185-220. Also in Erik Lundberg, ed., Inflation Theory and Anti-Inflationary Policy (London: MacMillan, 1977), pp. 42-71 with discussion on pp. 94-108.)
The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 6 (1975, No. 3), pp. 613-62.)
The Demand for and Supply of Inflation
(Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 18 (December 1975), pp. 807-36.)
Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks
(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 6 (1975, no. 1), pp. 183-206.)